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Better get used to the thought - the Trump case (03/05/16 20:45:19)
With age I have learnt the hard way that my personal opinion of politicians has no effect whatever on the results of elections. Or rather: I don't like those who get elected, and I don'ẗ like those who do not.
Obama, methinks, was a disappointment. What he did within the USA is no concern of mine. What he did or did not do in Europe, Asia and Africa matters a lot. But perhaps the muslim world will finally wake up and see that they need to act out a paradox: If their islam is a religion of peace, then they need to defend it - if necessary by force against those who practice a religion of violence. I've said it before: The westernised muslim women will not accept a system that gives them fewer rights or less freedom than the europeans have as standard for their own women.
I found the Wikipedia article about Mohamads wife Aisha a very enlightening one.
So what about Trump? (03/05/16 21:02:58)
The only thing I should (and will) say, is that my power of predictions is very poor. Trump, whatever there is to be said against his behaviour or personality, is good at winning elections. So we had better be prepared for him being POTUSOA.
Re: So what about Trump? (05/05/16 21:38:06)
I am not sure if you actually follow the happenings. What Trump did until now is got himself the republican nominee. Which is a sad thing because he is a very poor representative of any "republican" values. He got all the votes from the people who might vote republican against the other republican nominated. The results said nothing about the estimated results of running him against a democratic party nominee. As sadly you cannot really beat Clinton with a lunatic, I took the liberty and checked the British betting sites. Let me quote:
If you willing to put £2 on Trump and he wins the bookies pay you £5 over ( they estimate a chance of 2/7 - 28% on Trump ). With Hillary Clinton its the other way around - if you pay £5 an d she wins you gonna win £2 ( 5/7 71% on Hillary ).
They do this for a living - and they are living well.
I am seriously tempted to put money on Hillary as it feels safe investment.
Re: Re: So what about Trump? (08/05/16 17:07:19)
A very interesting bet. I would guess the odds have changed a bit since he started his campaign. I think a lot can be said about his opponents - whether Republican or Democrat. So in the end the new POTUSA will be the person who manages to win most of the key states.
If Clinton wins, I owe you some beers. If Trump wins, you owe me nothing.
Re: Re: Re: So what about Trump? (08/05/16 20:33:20)
Anyway - do bookies make bets of their own? Sustainable business would be to balance winnings against losses - with the profits in the fees.
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