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|Containing COVID-19 (14/03/20 09:21:34)||Reply|
Some countries (like mine) seem to try to slow down dissemination rate to a level that the system can cope with (read intensive care capacity). Some seem to wish to keep the numbers down by limiting the availability of diagnostic tests. Tests cost money, and high numbers are embarrassing, and non-private health care is communism.
One scenario nicely illustrated on curves I saw on BBC says that if drastic measures are taken too early, the peak will just be delayed. I add: unless there is a plan to delay the spread long enough that the population may be vaccinated. So if the government is willing and able to spend all that money on a future, not yet existing, vaccine, then that measure is sensible. But if the infection is already inside the borders, then stopping influx of foreigners will not prevent exponential growth. Drastic measures must have a limited duration and cannot go on for ever, so how long can the system hold out?
We live in interesting times. I hope all of you with high age and/or pre-existing illness will keep clear until a safe and effective vaccine is available. And the world will have to rethink vulnerability caused by centralisation, urbanisation, intercontinental travel and transport. So perhaps we can have better protection of wildlife (no more eating of wild bats or apes (think ebola)) and less flying that injects CO2 into the upper atmosphere.
|Some relevant (?) literature (14/03/20 10:32:19)||Reply|
|Paying the price (14/03/20 10:44:49)||Reply|
When I was at school (1958-70), the school was full of well-educated teachers, and the goal was to eliminate social differences stemming from different social backgrounds. Children with educated parents and children of working-class parents went to the same schools and learnt their reading and maths and sciences and languages at approximately the same pace. Nowadays, more youngsters are in schools because jobs for 15-18-year-olds have disappeared. So they go to schools. So standards have sunk. Parents with resources look after their children. parents without resources, cannot - and some even have aversion against learning. So the schools don't alleviate social handicaps any more. And children who have their own room, have much better conditions for learning than those who have to share a small flat with many siblings.
So it is urgently necessary to use large resources to help the poor part of the population in this crisis. And hopefully that help can be extended beyong the COVID-19 crisis.
|Re: Containing COVID-19 (14/03/20 15:34:33)||Reply|
Drastic measures will in the end prolong the pandemic, but they will also flatten the curve - and maybe to a point where our national health systems can cope with the need.
I played around with some numbers in a spreadsheet. The average daily growth rate for the last 14 days has been 1.33. So every day, the number of infected people increases by approximately 33%. Yesterday we had 3675 cases. If we don't manage to flatten the curve, we will have around 200k infected people by the end of the month. Around 20% of the infected need medical treatment. Around 5% of the infected need intensive care.
Germany has 28k intensive care beds in its hospitals, 6k of which are usually unoccupied. Let's say we could somehow cope with 10k of infected people that need intensive care. If 10k is 5%, then the number is 200k - which we probably will reach in a bit over two weeks from now. From that point on, we won't have enough intensive care beds for everyone who needed one. Then someone will have to decide who receives intensive treatment and who does not. At that point, the lethality rate will rise.
And that's Germany with comparatively many intensive care beds. Other countries in Europe have less. We will have an interesting April this year...
|Re: Re: Containing COVID-19 (14/03/20 17:53:59)||Reply|
This is what is happening in Italy, in particular in the Lombardy region. That's why Italy have put in quarantine all the nation: to avoid that other regions be in the same condition of Lombardy. For now it's working, but it can't last forever.
It seems that other european nations are not learning from the Italy case and it's likely that in the next week other nations will be in the same condition of Italy. Hope no and maybe there are other strategies than the complete quarantine to solve this situation (excluding vaccine and drugs that at the moment do not exist) but I'm not able to imagine those now.
|Just in case you didn't know (15/03/20 18:01:22)||Reply|
This site reminds me of the good old Internet, where all the free and fantastic stuff could be found.
|Containing it or clearing it or living with it? (16/03/20 18:57:50)||Reply|
If COVID-19 or whatever it is called these days gives poor immunity, we might as well just prepare for the infection to become endemic - like the common cold. But perhaps those clever people can come up with something, and have a vaccine against the common cold (some 200 viruses) as a fortunate spinoff?
|Re: Containing it or clearing it or living with it? (17/03/20 01:44:36)||Reply|
Even if it does not become endemic, we need to take into account a second wave in autumn (and maybe a third one later in 2021), which might well be worse than the first one.
Which might match 1918/19 pretty closely.
|clearing corona one lick at a time. (18/03/20 22:52:33)||Reply|
|Re: Containing COVID-19 (15/03/20 19:17:49)||Reply|
https://emcrit.org/ibcc/covid19/ - a decent if not quite concerned enough brief.
https://www.anonymousconservative.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/COVID-19-Virus-Protection.pdf - personal PPE, although to be quite sure you would need a lvl 3 decon station to pass though every time you doffed the ppe, not really suitable for individuals, tbqh - if you're part of a team/squad/platoon sure. Best just stay home.
the 8 metokur streams ( so far... ) are a good precis of the severity, normalcy bias, inaction and now panic. I'll leave it to dear reader to seek their urls, which are not at all occluded. @ 20 hours of vidja.
Also the bdanon bio-weapon theory should not be discounted, if only for the fact that he mentioned iran as being infected in december, months before news broke of it there, the multi-strain variants and their severity now being borne out in iran, italy and china and also predicts the infection of the staggeringly massive homeless population of the west coast. That prediction seems right on schedule and certainly will mean martial law. There is an archive of those posts as well for the seeker to find.
I would urge over-caution rather than trusting the 'experts' who seem to be 2-6 weeks behind the curve just about everywhere, with the notable exceptions of russia, vientam, and possibly singapore.
The 2nd and 3rd order effects are just beginning. If there is no war from corona-chan it will be a blessed miracle. Stay away from crowds, take care of each other.
|Re: Re: Containing COVID-19 (17/03/20 01:48:21)||Reply|
Ever thought about Ockhams scalpel?
This was not manufactured.
|oh dear (17/03/20 05:37:07)||Reply|
I imagine one might, if they were looking deeply into your lovely eyes, be able to see your consciousness blink off like a buzzing fluorescent "bzzzzzt!" as you encounter something inoffiziell. I don't know if it's your dear deutcher nature or instilled by politic nurture. The problem with the Wissenschaftsbeamter types round your parts are such luminaries as herr doktor Helmut Kentler - top men. Your country is doing almost as badly a job as mine, which is quite a feat. The outcome is already sub-optimal.
Dear GS, discussion wasn't my motivation either. Sharing data, sorted and unsorted, with dear friends is what motivated me. I'm relatively safe and sound, have been for 7 weeks ever since they started mass cremations in wuhan in secret. If I am wrong in my assessment, I'll have a few months of food I'll eat anyway, and I've missed sitting in a cafe or a museum and some travel I'll happily admit to being a chicken little.
Oh GS, I do hope you're out of the urban center and far away innawoods in a chateau with your love and 3 months of food and a way to have clean water when the power fails. That goes for the rest of our dear friends here. It's not just the virus, mind you, it's the millions of irrational people who are suddenly without routine, or food or drink, some of whom already set cars on fire in the best of times, on hair trigger or just for kicks. Best of luck with scientific discussion with people like dunning and kruger here: https://twitter.com/AlArabiya_Eng/status/1234000549151940608
be excellent to each other
|Peace, please (17/03/20 11:01:55)||Reply|
|Re: Peace, please (17/03/20 17:46:15)||Reply|
|Re: Re: Peace, please (17/03/20 19:29:23)||Reply|
|Re: Re: Re: Peace, please (21/03/20 03:11:36)||Reply|
It's a pandemic. *I* am aware. *We* are aware. We do stay at home. We do try not to get it and not to spread it.
We have been trying to alert the people around us, friends, relatives.
The thing is: In Germany, most people (like 97%) heed the regulations introduced upon them. 3% don't - that's why we face a curfew from (most probably) Monday on. Which is ok. Flatten the curve.
The UK and the US are far behind of most EU states. And both (ok, US more than the UK) have a health care system, that does not deserve its name. Thousands of people will die. The avalanche is rolling.
|Re: Re: Re: Re: Peace, please (21/03/20 17:32:56)||Reply|
|it begins (19/03/20 15:51:25)||Reply|
Some people did something, but our comments are closed.
|too l8? (19/03/20 21:43:04)||Reply|
shelter-in-place it is then.
some had the right idea to gtfo, but lookit them comments wot? Torches & pitchforks cummin soon, aye?
|06 feb 2020 (26/03/20 00:37:39)||Reply|
48 days ahead of reveal
who knows who, what, where, when & why bdanon is, but the predictions keep coming true.
|containing the spread (19/03/20 18:05:37)||Reply|
Do ebmb have a minder like AC? https://www.anonymousconservative.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/WuFru.png Perhaps ccp knows a local who will tow the line?
the comintern is counting on you!
It's just a fru, blo
|the most interesting (23/03/20 00:38:23)||Reply|
the searchwizard will certainly find more - 200 articles for me to read from today only, no time to search the raw date to spoonfeed the midwits, so solly
|database (22/03/20 03:28:44)||Reply|
"COVID-19 Open Research Dataset (CORD-19)
Access this dataset to help with the fight against COVID-19
A Free, Open Resource for the Global Research Community
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Allen Institute for AI has partnered with leading research groups to prepare and distribute the COVID-19 Open Research Dataset (CORD-19), a free resource of over 44,000 scholarly articles, including over 29,000 with full text, about COVID-19 and the coronavirus family of viruses for use by the global research community.
This dataset is intended to mobilize researchers to apply recent advances in natural language processing to generate new insights in support of the fight against this infectious disease. The corpus will be updated weekly as new research is published in peer-reviewed publications and archival services like bioRxiv, medRxiv, and others."
"24,000 coronavirus research papers are now available in one place"
skynet activated, science away bruhs
|Re: Containing COVID-19 (27/03/20 21:09:39)||Reply|
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