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A dark day for Europe (24/02/22 07:01:19) Reply
    No words.
rf

Some words (24/02/22 09:19:16) Reply
    Mentally he has been sick for many years. Physically he doesn't look healthy either. It is time for him to retire. Become a full-time grandfather of sorts. Give him a pipe and a pair of slippers.

    He cares nothing about people. Not his own. Not the others.

    It is impossible to attribute the crime of invading Ukraine exclusively to the madness of the chief madman in the Kremlin. He has accomplices. Lots of them. So Russians will have a hard time distancing themselves credibly from the present crimes.

    There are precedents.

    "During the First Chechen War, Grozny was the site of an intense battle lasting from December 1994 to February 1995 and ultimately ending with the capture of the city by the Russian military. Intense fighting and carpet bombing carried out by the Russian Air Force destroyed much of the city. "

    "Grozny was once again the epicenter of fighting after the outbreak of the Second Chechen War, which further caused thousands of fatalities. During the early phase of the Russian siege on Grozny on October 25, 1999, Russian forces launched five SS-21 ballistic missiles at the crowded central bazaar and a maternity ward, killing more than 140 people and injuring hundreds. During the massive shelling of the city that followed, most of the Russian artillery were directed toward the upper floors of the buildings; although this caused massive destruction of infrastructure, civilian casualties were much less than in the first battles.

    The final seizure of the city was set in early February 2000, when the Russian military lured the besieged militants to a promised safe passage. Seeing no build-up of forces outside, the militants agreed. One day prior to the planned evacuation, the Russian Army mined the path between the city and the village of Alkhan-Kala and concentrated most firepower on that point. As a result, both the city mayor and military commander were killed; a number of other prominent separatist leaders were also killed or wounded, including Shamil Basayev and several hundred rank-and-file militants. Afterwards, the Russians slowly entered the empty city and on February 6 raised the Russian flag in the center. Many buildings and even whole areas of the city were systematically dynamited. A month later, it was declared safe to allow the residents to return to their homes, although demolition continued for some time. In 2003 the United Nations called Grozny the most destroyed city on earth."

    (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grozny)

    The tsar has learnt from his predecessors, such as Stalin.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_German_uprising_of_1953

    I suppose the Ukrainians know what to expect.
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Evacuating people and movable assets (24/02/22 17:40:50) Reply
    Fromexperience we see that conquerors plunder and loot their victims. So they will attempt to steal whatever can be stolen. Industry. Money. Infrastructure such as computer systems. Food stores too - 1930-33 will be remembered. The tsar himself has said that the Ukrainians are not worthy of having their own state.
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They are coming closer to an area near you (28/04/22 12:38:28) Reply
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Imperial_Movement

    "In 2008, RIM formed its paramilitary branch, called the Imperial Legion. The group maintains two training facilities in Saint Petersburg, one of which is known as camp Partizan, located south of Heinäsenmaa [ru] island. The Partizan runs urban warfare training, shooting training, tactical medicine, high-altitude training, military psychology, and survival training.[17][7][1] After the war in Donbas broke out in eastern Ukraine in April 2014, the RIM began training and sending volunteer soldiers to the pro-Russian groups in the conflict in July.[8] Some members of the Imperial Legion have also worked as mercenaries in the Middle East and North Africa. On January 30, 2020, it was reported that Vladimir Skopinov, who had also previously fought in Donbas and Syria, died in Libya. He was the second member of the Legion to die in Libya.[18]

    On 6 April 2020, the U.S. Department of State added the Russian Imperial Movement and three of its leaders (Stanislav Anatolyevich Vorobyev, Denis Valliullovich Gariyev,[19] and Nikolay Nikolayevich Trushchalov[20]) to the Specially Designated Global Terrorist list,[14] thereby making it the first white supremacist group to be designated a terrorist organization by the State Department.[7] The group was officially designated as a terrorist group in Canada on 3 February 2021.[21][5]

    The Imperial Legion, a paramilitary arm of RIM has called for “young Orthodox men” to dedicate themselves to defend Novorossiya.[22]

    According to the US State Department, RIM provides paramilitary-style training to extremists throughout Europe and operates two training facilities there.[9]"
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But (24/02/22 09:46:58) Reply
    The tsar has no scientific background, but a background in secret police and (paradoxically) law. So he has no understanding of Le Chatelier's principle

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Le_Chatelier%27s_principle

    "Le Chatelier's principle describes the qualitative behavior of systems where there is an externally induced, instantaneous change in one parameter of a system; it states that a behavioral shift occurs in the system so as to oppose (partly cancel) the parameter change. The duration of adjustment depends on the strength of the negative feedback to the initial shock.

    ...

    The principle has analogs throughout the entire physical world.
    ..."

    It will be interesting to see how much the invasion of Ukraine will affect energy policies, as fossil energy exports is the main source of income for the Russian system. How much will the sactions accelerate Europe's transition away from fossil energy?
e

Food supplies for 200 000 uninvited and largely unexpected and unwelcome tourists (25/02/22 17:25:15) Reply
    Today it seems that the tsar was willing to negotiate somewhere in Belarus.

    I am old enough to remember 1968 and Cierna nad Tisou

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C4%8Cierna_nad_Tisou

    "In 1968, from 29 July to 1 August, Soviet and Czechoslovak leaders Leonid Brezhnev and Alexander Dubček met in Čierna nad Tisou. This meeting was followed by the Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia on 20 August 1968."

    Guess if Dubček was free to go home after the meeting.

    But anyway: 200 000 hungry soldiers deep inside enemy country - guess if Ukrainian restaurants, food shops and catering personnel are ready to feed them. I guess not.

    I guess the yes men surrounding the tsar told him that the Ukrainians would be happy for the visit.
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Duration and severity of the Russian attack on Ukraine (06/03/22 19:06:08) Reply
    It will be of long duration with immense human suffering unless someone in the tsar's inner circle does away with him. Appealing to common sense, decency and conscience is impossible with a person who has nothing of the sort.

    For a preview: look at the sad remains of Syria's cities. The tsar did help Assad stay in power, didn't he? Did he show any restraint in the cruelty of methods?

    There is a need of a huge set of war crime tribunals once the tidying can begin.
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We need to start educating the new professionsls (07/03/22 09:06:50) Reply
    There will be an urgent need for technically educated people to dismantle nuclear weapons and recycling the fissile material into innocuous reactor fuel. I've said that before. We also need technicians to build and maintain and run those power stations. We cannot wait for the politicians: they want almost instantaneous results and do not understand that well and specifically educated people are essential.

    To bootstrap this we need the knowledge and competence of Russian top-level nuclear engineers and scientists. Their knowledge will make the task less difficult to get started.

    No reason to forget Andrej Sakharov.
    "Andrei Dmitrievich Sakharov (Russian: Андре́й Дми́триевич Са́харов, IPA: [ɐnˈdrʲej ˈdmʲitrʲɪjevʲɪtɕ ˈsaxərəf]; 21 May 1921 – 14 December 1989) was a Soviet nuclear physicist, dissident, Nobel laureate, and activist for disarmament, peace and human rights.[1]

    He became renowned as the designer of the Soviet Union's RDS-37, a codename for Soviet development of thermonuclear weapons. Sakharov later became an advocate of civil liberties and civil reforms in the Soviet Union, for which he faced state persecution; these efforts earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 1975. The Sakharov Prize, which is awarded annually by the European Parliament for people and organizations dedicated to human rights and freedoms, is named in his honor.[2]"


    (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrei_Sakharov)
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An attempt at splitting the Ukrainians and NATO (07/03/22 17:53:21) Reply
    The tsar says: agree that we keep what we have stolen, and formalise that you will bear no grudges, and we will stop killing your people and devastating your country. For now.

    Withdrawal of the Russian military to show good will? Payment of reparations for the killings and destruction - say a 10 percent advance payment, the remainder to be paid within 6 months?

    I didn't think so.
e

Dark days for attackers and defenders (11/03/22 17:51:54) Reply
    Russian forces, normally stationed on the Norwegian border, have been to the battlefield of Ukraine, and sustained heavy losses.

    https://www.nrk.no/urix/russiske-soldater-fra-kirkenes-brigaden-skal-vaere-drept-i-ukraina-1.15885907

    (in Norwegian: I haven't tested machine translation)

    These forces have also been active in the second Chechen war.

    The fact that forces from the arctic border have been used in war theaters in the south, strengthens my idea that splitting European Russia into four parts would dampen the lust for other peoples' land - or at least make it more difficult to assemble large aggressive military forces.
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The war of Russian succession (28/04/22 15:49:10) Reply
    History does not repeat itself - how could it - when technology and knowledge develop independently in potential enemy countries - but historical parallels might be a thing.

    So - when Russia has lost WWIII - the struggle between a major reactionary tyranny and the post-enlightenment West - there is a time to consolidate. At best this would be done by nuclear disarmament and splitting up of Russia. But China ould be more than willing to act as scavenger when the West, led by heroic Ukraine, has flattened the Russian military. So there might be armed conflict. Japan, too, might take an interest too, as we can see in the verbal activities regarding the Kuril islands.

    We might have a parallel: The Spanish war of succession.

    "Although weakened by over a century of continuous conflict, in 1700 the Spanish Empire remained a global power with its vast dominions including the Spanish Netherlands, large parts of Italy, the Philippines, and much of the Americas. Charles's closest heirs were members of the Austrian Habsburgs or French Bourbons; acquisition of an undivided Spanish Empire by either threatened the European balance of power."

    (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_the_Spanish_Succession)
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Another historic parallel (29/04/22 09:55:00) Reply
    "The Kremlin midget(s)" - not my term, but that ofRussian military critics of the failed Ukrainian campaign. "How much losses need to be sustained before the KM admit that the war was a failure?"

    So we could look back into history for Napoleon Bonaparte - another ultimate failure

    "His supposedly small stature and fiery temper has inspired the term the Napoleon Complex, a popular belief that short men tend to compensate for their lack of height through domineering behavior and aggression."

    "Gillray’s image of Napoleon as a small man was so popular that other cartoonists took it up. An anonymous 1811 cartoon, “Bony's visions or a great little man's night comforts,” shows Napoleon having night terrors as the cracks in his empire had begun to show. Among the many fearful figures swirling around him, a demon holds up a placard inscribed with the horrors of political satire, among which “Gilray's Caricatures” is listed."

    https://www.history.com/news/napoleon-complex-short
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